Week 5 - Successful (Failed) Prediction

The failed prediction also became the basis for a successful prediction. At the time this prediction was made in 1195 / 1996, bandwidth was scarce, computers were slow and expensive. Larry Ellison’s original idea was that the PC was….and, as a result, would be replaced by a network device. A small, inexpensive, and untethered network device would access all data from a central network as opposed to its individual hard drive. This would also minimize TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) as updates and bug fixes would automatic and administrative costs would be minimized.

One of the main premises of this prediction was that evolution would occur as the result of Java advancements even though Java functionality barely worked. Although it was talked about at the time, there was really very little that came close to a true Web application. As a result, network computing came and went.

However, at the same time it came and went, a standard emerged that included Web-connected PCs and server-based applications that dynamically generated HTML. Today, the internet has expanded beyond use for text, links, and images. It is used to send e-mail, research items of interest, or conduct business. Software is now delivered into the browser. Networked applications are real, but they are called Web applications – Ellison’s vision of the network computer.

References:
"Inside the NC," http://www.byte.com/art/9611/sec11/art2.htm Accessed July 27, 2008.
"Oracle, IBM ready Network Computers," http://sunsite.uakom.sk/sunworldonline/swol-09-1996/swol-09-nc.html Accessed July 27, 2008.
"Cheaper Computing, Part 1," http://www.byte.com/art/9704/sec6/art1.htm Accessed July 27, 2008.
“Ellison resurrects network computer,” http://news.cnet.com/Ellison-resurrects-network-computer/2100-1001_3-233137.html Accessed August 9, 2008.
“Larry Ellison and the Network Computer that Wasn’t,” http://www.mondaymemo.net/031103feature.htm Accessed August 9, 2008.
“The grand obsessions of Larry Ellison,” http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/1997/01/13/editorial1.html Accessed August 9, 2008.
“Perspective: The second coming of the network computer,” http://news.cnet.com/The-second-coming-of-the-network-computer/2010-1028_3-5459006.html Accessed August 9, 2008.